Like a plague on all our houses, the Oscars have arrived. They are at once the cinematic lowlight and highlight of the year, a grim spectacle that actually, it is quite fun to gather round for and jeer at. This year has featured particularly heightened jeering with Emilia Pérez leading nominations (at 13! The second highest amount ever!) and sort of blocking out any positivity around a lot of exciting films getting exciting nominations. With our crop of nominated films now known, it’s time for wild and baseless predictions. As ever, I’m predicting what I think will win, weighing in on what I would choose to take the trophy and where possible, also throwing in a suggestion of a film that I wish had made the cut. In a lot of categories I won’t have much to say, so I will keep those short! Some chaos picks will appear too, those will be explained as they arise, though if Emilia Pérez is nominated, assume that as a default chaos win (we will still take opportunities to beat that dead horse). With our ground rules laid, let us predict!

Best Documentary Short Film

Will Win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra

It’s a short distributed by Netflix that promises not to be overwhelmingly depressing, it seems the most likely.

Best Live Action Short Film

Will Win: A Lien

You have to go cynical with these short film categories. A film about a political topic that isn’t so political as to be divisive? Go for it.

Best Animated Short Film

Will Win: Wander to Wonder

I am told that this is the film winning a bunch of other similar awards at similar ceremonies, so we’re just playing the odds here.

Best Documentary

Will Win: Porcelain War

Should Win: No Other Land

I should apologise here, I’ve seen very few of the films on this list. I do hear that the nominees are all pretty great, Black Box Diaries in particular I really wanted to check out before time got away from me. The film I have seen though is phenomenal and that is No Other Land. It’s the story of how Israel is destroying Palestinian homes in an attempt to eradicate their people. The story is told from the perspective of one Palestinian man and one Israeli journalist and it is as revealing as it is heart-breaking. However, it is about a controversial war that people in Hollywood are particularly uncomfortable with (the film doesn’t even have proper distribution deal in the US). A film about a war that does seem less controversial to the Americans is the Ukrainian war, which is depicted in Porcealin War. Again, I do hear it’s great, pairing miniature beauty with massive horror. It just feels frustrating when there is an amazing documentary about an essential subject that is begging to be rewarded and may not be because Hollywood types won’t do any soul searching.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Win: Better Man

Should Have Been Nominated: Nosferatu

Alright, let’s rattle through this one. Alien Romulus and Wicked are just big films that have notable CGI in them, though both are broadly unlikely to win because they both have some moments of noticeably bad CGI. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is built almost entirely of visual effects and while it doesn’t feel as impressive as the last two Planet of the Apes films, it is a film of obvious and impressive CGI. My favourite ape film in the category though is easily Better Man, a film in which an ape is on screen with a bunch of humans and you never question it at any point. They use the effects for some absolutely amazing transitions too, not that anyone knows that because no one saw it. The unquestionable leader in this category though is Dune: Part Two. Like the first film, it’ll do really well in technical categories because in every category, it is the film with the biggest scale, executed to perfection for every second of its mammoth runtime. It truly deserves the win. As we will also see in all the technical categories, I love Nosferatu and would love it to be nominated everywhere possible. It uses visual effects in a way that is pretty imperceptible, which therefore means it was too good to be nominated. So it goes.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: The Brutalist

Should Win: Anora

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

There is an old adage that best editing at the Oscars goes to the film with the most editing. Therefore, that unfortunately does mean that Emilia Pérez has a chance here, but I would love it not to. I also think Wicked would be a really poor choice here, as the edit makes the film feel even longer than it is, as the film squeezes a three hour play into a pair of two and a half hour long films. Conclave would be a lovely choice as it’s a film that properly rockets along and that I have happily watched twice, such is its effortless nature. I would expect it to lose to The Brutalist however, as most editing can mean either really quick shot transitions or longest film. The Brutalist is very long! Unlike Wicked though, it is a really pleasantly paced film that I could luxuriate in for hours. For me though, Anora is my pick. The structure of the film is quite magnificent and while the bulk of that credit goes to the screenplay, the moment to moment feeling of the film is splendid. That middle home invasion section is immaculate, hopping between a moment of crisis and the funniest baptism I’ve ever seen. As will become a tradition though, we will pour one out for Challengers. Here is a film of perfect pace, restless energy and magic feeling, which was always too good for the Oscars.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Wicked

Should Win: Nosferatu

Should Have Been Nominated: The Beast

We come now to the only category Gladiator II is nominated in. It has no chance of winning. Such is life. All four of the other nominees would be a good shout though. My beloved Nosferatu is nominated here and would be a great shout, Robert Eggers always makes sure that his costume team pick costumes that are spot on for the period, Nosferatu is no exception. Weirdly, Conclave would also be a solid choice. The little cloaks and little hats are great, they’re nothing too extravagant but you never doubt them for a second. Another great choice is A Complete Unknown, a film that also recreates period accurate outfits but for a period when many of the voters were alive. However, there’s no way it can’t be Wicked. If I’ve got my facts right, the stage musical won the equivalent award at the Tony’s, plus as someone who isn’t a huge defender of the film, those costumes are lovely. They became instantly iconic, they look really fancy, give them the trophy now. That is, you give them the trophy. I will give mine to The Beast, another film you will keep seeing me bring up. This film is set across three different time periods and even on a tiny budget, all the time periods are truly believable. You will get bored of me talking about The Beast so we’ll move on.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: The Substance

Should Win: Nosferatu

Should Have Been Nominated: Dune: Part Two

It’s The Substance. That’s the end of the conversation. The Substance has amazing, obvious and properly cool makeup and hairstyling. It has to win this award. They painted a woman green for Wicked, did drag king makeup for Emilia Pérez and probably did something equally impressive for A Different Man (I apologise, the film escaped me and I’ll kick myself for that later). But like, it’s The Substance. I’d give it to Nosferatu because I think the execution of the titular character is just phenomenal, but I know it doesn’t have a chance. Even though I would have liked to have seen Dune: Part Two in here, it too would ultimately only be here to lose to The Substance.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: The Brutalist

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

I have to say, this is a category where every film really is deserving of its place. Even Maria, I film I thought was so bad it was borderline patronising, at least had the good courtesy to look beautiful. Oh wait, I lied, Emilia Pérez is here. Why? It has good elements but its cinematography is not amongst them, it just looks a little odd and a little different. In a bold twist, I don’t think Nosferatu should win this, despite being nominated. Do not get me wrong, it looks phenomenal and is one of the best looking films of the year, lighting its colour film to make it almost monochrome. However, it is not the best looking film of the year. For me, the best looking film nominated in this category is Dune: Part Two. There are images in this film that are jaw dropping and genuinely a little hard to believe. Thinking of them now, I get goosebumps, although to be fair I am a little sci-fi nerd. The Academy not being a group of little sci-fi nerds, they will go for The Brutalist. It was filmed in a very specific style and is all about how essential the look of things is, it’s an easy win. An easy nomination though would surely have been Challengers. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom knows exactly how to make Guadagnino’s films feel luscious and he makes tennis feel more exciting than I’ve ever seen it. That final scene alone is worthy of about eight different awards, how did they not even nominate this? COME ON!!!

Best Production Design

Will Win: The Brutalist

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Have Been Nominated: The Beast

Actually, a category that genuinely feels pretty correct. Conclave had to build its own Vatican, Wicked transposed great stage sets into great film sets and Nosferatu made 18th century Germany and vampiric castles feel just as real as each other. Those would all be three highly deserving winners. My winner would be Dune: Part Two. If you’re not in production design (as I’m not), it’s not easy to rank quality of production design. The closest I can get is that the worlds of Dune are the most illogical and yet I believed all the worlds completely. I reckon the Academy will go for The Brutalist though. It’s literally a film about making buildings, how much more production design-y can you get? Get that tally chart ready in the back, it’s time for me to tell you The Beast should have been nominated. As I said earlier, we cover three different time periods in totally convincing fashion. The film also asks for a disquieting air, which all the sets facilitate, by being either a little too big or a little too small. It is a mix of subtle work and really impressive big work, it should have been a big contender here.

Best Sound

Will Win: A Complete Unknown

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

Like with editing, “most sound” is how you need to think of this award. Emilia Pérez therefore isn’t a terrible prediction, but it would be a terrible winner. The Wild Robot would be nice, obviously the entire soundscape of that has to be rigorously constructed, unlike the live action nominees. I wouldn’t say its sound has stuck with me but all the same, it feels tough to argue its place here. Likewise, wow, lots of sound in Wicked. My main issue would be that you think sound in Wicked, you only think of the songs and not the texture of the songs. That sounds like a pretentious point but our likely winner, A Complete Unknown, proves my point. Here, it’s not just that we have songs, we also have the crackle of microphones, we have radio static, we have a world that sounds alive. It’s pretty fab to be fair, but I would pick Dune. Again, these are alien worlds that feel true and while the visuals were a great draw to the cinema, the soundscape was just as vital, requiring some big and expensive speakers. We will once again take a moment for Challengers though. What a great sounding movie. What a great movie. How do cinemas show anything other than Challengers?

Best Original Song

Will Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Should Win: “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing

Should Have Been Nominated: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

CHAOS WIN: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

What a terrible category this is this year. Five slightly limp songs, all spluttering in and feeling like obligations. Just this decade we’ve seen bangers from Billie Eilish (twice), Mitski and Ryan Gosling in the category and looking just a little further afield, we’ve had winners like “Man or Muppet” and “City of Stars”, full throated musical set pieces that command the viewers attention. These songs barely stopped me turning them off while on in the background. Honestly, even after the Emilia Pérez backlash, I think “El Mal” has it in the bag. It’s the flashiest set piece in the film, more so than the dreary “Mi Camino”, and it was at least a slightly fond memory I had while leaving the cinema. Elton John is here because he is Elton John, no other reason. I thought “Like a Bird” at least stood out from the category and made me feel a little something. Why there was no space for the actually moving “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl confounds me. It’s by Miley Cyrus, there wasn’t even some vain interest in getting another star in the building? However, the most important reason to highlight this category is the song “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight. It is written by Diane Warren, who is on her sixteenth Academy Award nominations and has never won a competitive prize (she was given an honorary one in 2022). Every year, she releases a bland song for a movie no one has heard of, it gets nominated and she will lose to something people have heard of. Last year, she allegedly had a go at the ceremony producers after losing to Billie Eilish, who hardly feels like the worst person to lose to. We will pay attention to this category just to see if she once again loses her head or is finally relieved of her pain. Time only will tell, but with a year this weak, maybe it is her time.

Best Original Score

Will Win and Should Win: The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

Both deserve credit in their own ways but honestly, what are Wicked and Emilia Pérez doing here? The bulk of the music in Wicked isn’t original as it is taken from the stage musical and most of the original songs in Emilia Pérez are just people whisper talking over booming synth beats. Boot both out of here. I honestly don’t remember much of the score from The Wild Robot so I would feel bad saying too much about it, but it is at least nice seeing an animated film in this category. Conclave‘s score is quite lovely, a thing that booms and twinkles, throwing in the same leitmotifs for different impact throughout. As someone who works at a cinema where we’ve been screening the film pretty constantly, I’m still yet to get bored of the music that plays through its end credits and that’s always a great thing. However, head and shoulders above the competition, is Daniel Blumberg’s score for The Brutalist. It too has recurring leitmotifs, such as that incredible opening number on the boat, but is also relentlessly surprising. It’s the only film in this category whose score I’ve listened to after watching and I think it’s also the most complicated, what a deserving winner it could be. If you know me though, you know it’s time to talk Challengers. No one who has seen Challengers is able to stop themselves from mentioning the score and after it won at the Golden Globes, a nomination seemed likely at the Oscars. Of the two fantastic scores Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross made for Luca Guadagnino films, this is the king. Alas, no luck. Fortunately, the vinyl is mine forever and Reznor and Ross will doubtless bounce back next year with another incredible score or two.

Best International Feature Film

Will Win and Should Win: I’m Still Here

Should Have Been Nominated: Kneecap

I was desperate to see Flow this year but unfortunately, due to the nature of UK release dates, I have not been able to (I know it’s floating around online, but if you’re not going to support a film like this at the cinema then what’s the point?) However, there’s still plenty of good stuff in this category. The Seed of the Sacred Fig is a very fine film indeed and just it’s creation is a miracle, but for me it just didn’t click as much as I hoped it would. I was very impressed by The Girl with the Needle though, a Danish film of both stark beauty and unrelenting misery. It’s not an easy watch but it’s one of those films that makes you want to watch whatever it is the director makes next. At one point, we may have assumed Emilia Pérez was the frontrunner to win this award but after the backlash, it seems like an uphill battle, especially when competing against I’m Still Here. I’m Still Here surprised many when it made it into both Best Picture and Best Actress (more on those later) but the good thing about that is that more people will get a chance to check out the film. It’s a heartbreaking true story that is incredibly moving and is a reminder of just how much great cinema is coming out of Brazil these days. It also helps the film’s odds that it’s fantastic, and it would be my choice in this category. Lots of other amazing films were unable to make the cut this year, as always, but I would have loved to see some love for the anarchic Kneecap. Forgive me for being cynical but this can be a dry category and some Irish language shenanigans, drug use and remarkably creative swearing would have been welcome. Alas, it wasn’t to be, but aren’t you glad I wasn’t able to mention Challengers?

Best Animated Feature

Will Win and Should Win: The Wild Robot

Once again, my apologies for not watching Flow yet, I’m very excited for it’s UK release later this month. Another bit of quick housekeeping, thank God the Oscars didn’t nominate the limp Moana 2 here, just because it’s a Disney film. That would have been quite an embarrassment and prevented one of our smaller and more interesting nominees. Speaking of Disney, Inside Out 2 left me mainly cold. It rehashes the first film in a largely uninspiring way and was a sobering reminder of how much more corporate Pixar have gotten in the past decade. The other three nominees though are a treat. Memoir of a Snail is the only film in the category for adults and therefore stands out straight away. It has a really visceral ugliness to it’s animation that I love, avoiding pixel perfect beauty in favour of something with real personality. It’s not quite as magnificent as Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl though, a feature length return for the nation’s favourite dog and least favourite dog owner. It has no chance in hell of winning (God knows the Anton Deck joke alone will have gone straight over the heads of most Americans) but what a charming nomination. No, the real heavyweight here is The Wild Robot. It has lost a few awards to Flow but this is a big budget animated film from a studio that looks as great as it feels. None of the others come close to the emotional journey here, which was at risk of giving me serious medical side effects from dehydration.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Nickel Boys

Should Have Been Nominated: The Beast

We are finally in the “big eight” categories. Things get serious here and any nominee marks itself out as a film to watch. To that, I say I’m sorry I didn’t catch Sing Sing. One of the film’s big weaknesses this awards season was its half hearted release, which was unfortunately true here in the UK, it came and went in the space of about a week. I heard great things, I will catch up eventually. A shame, as I have to start this category by not just admitting my defeat but by also not being pleased by some nominations. Emilia Pérez got one of its 13 nominations in this category, to which I say okay? The structure is a bit of a mess and the film itself feels long, it’s tough to know if we lay that blame at the screenplay. I also don’t know how to feel about the nomination of A Complete Unknown. I surprised myself with how much I enjoyed the film, but I think its great accomplishments are in the music, the atmosphere and the performances. None of those feel borne from the script. Though I’ve not read the original novel, the adaptation work for Nickel Boys astounds me. How do you create something that feels so cinematic from a novel? I have since bought the book to try and find out, but I think it’s a piece of adaptation that we’ll be talking about for a long time. However, nothing can beat Conclave. It hasn’t lost a single time that it’s been nominated in any of these big televised events and it is a film full of big weighty monologues that just scream “wow that’s well written.” It will win and to be fair, it will deserve it, for morphing papal drama into Drag Race. I would have loved to see The Beast in here though. It is a broad and experimental adaptation of a Henry James novella, taking it from turn of the century England to a narrative across time and place, while still containing the heartbreaking coda of the big finale. I’m only going on about it so much because it really does feel like a very special, once in a lifetime sort of film.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win and Should Win: Anora

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

I say it every year, I think you can find some of the most exciting films of the year in Original Screenplay, and this year we avoid any outright travesties. September 5 is the oddest inclusion in this category as it is absent from the rest of the ceremony, so its odds are low. The structure is good, but its core issue is being politically toothless and that is an issue that starts with the screenplay. I do also think The Substance is a silly screenplay nomination. Though it won best screenplay at Cannes, its structure makes the film feel longer than it is and the dialogue is as wooden as the desk I write this on. It deserves to be in this category for the “Original” part of the title, not the “Screenplay”. With our three left though, three good choices! The thing I loved most about A Real Pain was its ability to wrestle with ideas but never present definite answers to the audience. Its knottiness has been its longevity with me and I’m glad to see it here. The Brutalist would be a lovely choice too, an immense picture loaded with themes that also leaves certainty elusive. It has good odds due to the sheer obviousness of its structure, with Corbet openly splitting the film into parts, but it’s a move that I think makes the film stronger. However, can anything beat Anora? Here is a film that is also comprised of distinct acts that all compliment each other, and is also loaded with fun and complex dialogue in the way that Mike Leigh films are. Baker’s characters are so vivid and a win for Anora would be a win for his cinematic rogues gallery… But can we talk about Challengers? I was worried by the structure at first but it effortlessly bounces between time periods to create a group of three characters who are complete and complicated. I loved meeting them and I keep returning to see them again. Their story thrilled me and the screenplay that crafted them deserves more credit than can ever be given it.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez

Should Win: Felicity Jones for The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Joan Chen for Dìdi

There are a bunch of great performances in this category, all stuck under the looming elephant in the room. Monica Barbaro was an inspired nomination from A Complete Unknown. In many ways, she’s the emotional core of the film and while a win from her is hugely unlikely, I’m very glad she’s here. Likewise, I’m happy to see Isabella Rossellini nominated for Conclave, she gives a true supporting performance in that she appears in only a few scenes but those scenes elevate the entire film. Ariana Grande is the opposite end of the scale, appearing in most of her movie and being a little on the edge of a supporting or lead performance. However, she was fantastic and while I’m not the biggest fan of Wicked, Grande lifts up the whole film in a way I never thought her capable of. My personal choice would be Felicity Jones for The Brutalist. I’ve not really been a fan of Jones’ other performances before, but she is something else here. After being mainly absent from the first half of the film, the second half belongs to her. She is terrifying and heartbreaking and fragile, a true supporting performance that truly changes the film. All of these talented actresses though will lose to Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez, a clear leading performance. She has the most screen time of the film, the narrative is seen through her eyes, we start and end with her. It is blatant category fraud but, if we go by the other ceremonies, it works. To be clear, Saldaña’s performance is good, I just think it pales in comparison to the others and is plain and simple in the wrong category. She could easily be swapped out with the marvellous Joan Chen for Dìdi. That’s a film that hasn’t had much attention at awards ceremonies and while I understand why, it’s a shame that Chen got lost in the shuffle. I’ve loved her since I first saw Twin Peaks, but this is a totally different performance from her. She is the emotional core of the film and the reason I like it as much as I do. She would have been an inspired nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain

Should Win: Yura Borisov for Anora

Should Have Been Nominated: Jesse Plemons for Civil War

This category is pretty much sewn up, with Kieran Culkin winning every major awards show since the Golden Globes and refusing to budge since. Like Saldaña, his performance is very reminiscent of a lead performance. Some might say, it is a lead performance. I am too discreet to tell you that I think it’s a lead performance, so we’ll all just agree to disagree. However, this talk does all overshadow the fact that his performance is genuinely phenomenal. Losing to Culkin is a really great batch of nominees. I don’t love Edward Norton’s performance in A Complete Unknown (of the three nominated from the film, his performance is my least favourite) but he’s a great actor and I still think he does fine work. Jeremy Strong is another great nomination for his work on The Apprentice and his Roy Cohn is one of the most interesting villains of the year. He is despicable and detestable, yet plays the character with such depth that by the end, you do almost pity him. Speaking of villains, we have Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. I was listening to an interview with director Brady Corbet where he described Pearce’s character as a classic villain from fifties melodramas, which was the first time that clicked for me. Though the character fits this trope, Pearce endows him with a depth that meant he never felt like less than a real person, even as he starts to get really horrible. Of the bunch though, I’d be lying if I said I loved anyone more than Yura Borisov from Anora. I first saw him in Compartment No. 6 and I was delighted to see him pop up here. He builds on the work he did before and is a real highlight of a film that is mainly made of highlights. If we’re talking supporting performances, I think there is one performance this year that succeeds in supporting the film in limited screen time. That is Jesse Plemons in Civil War. He is literally only in one scene of the film, but it is the scene from the film you remember. The film shifts dramatically around him and becomes something different when he leaves. Whatever you think of the film, his performance is a stand out of both this film and from all films last year.

Best Actress

Will Win: Demi Moore for The Substance

Should Win: Mikey Madison for Anora

Should Have Been Nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths

Here is the closest category to call all season, and therefore the most exciting. Before we talk properly, let’s rule out Karla Sofia-Gascon from Emilia Pérez. She has been at the centre of a real doozy of a shit show, with old tweets tanking the odds for her and the entire film. It is all very complicated and honestly, my main takeaway is that Netflix should have done more to support a trans person when people who have done much worse still receive industry support. Cynthia Erivo stands more of a chance but having won nothing all season, I don’t see her odds as high. To be honest, I reckon her main detriment is that there’s a second part of Wicked coming out this year and she may be getting earmarked for that. With these final three though, any of them could win. Fernanda Torres is the one with the possibility for an upset victory after her film I’m Still Here made it into Best Picture. She also won at the Golden Globes and, crucially, is amazing. If people are actually watching her film, she could take this. When it comes to these last two though, we’re on a coin toss. I didn’t know where to go between Demi Moore’s transformative and OTT performance in The Substance or Mikey Madison in Anora, giving my favourite performance of the year and completely owning the entire film. Madison would be my choice, but Moore has a great narrative. In the end, I did what every smart man does: I listened to my partner. She thinks Demi Moore will win (having seen Anora but not The Substance) and so that is my final prediction. For the performance I wish was here, I don’t know how you don’t choose Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths. It’s big and it’s showy, but it’s also deeply felt. She does this one face in the film that I’ve thought about since October and if you’ve seen the film, I can’t see how it wouldn’t stick with you too.

Best Actor

Will Win and Should Win: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Josh O’Connor for La Chimera

CHAOS WIN: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice

Best Actor is a little more interesting than many feared this year, plus it’s replete with lots of great choices. I apologise, I haven’t seen Sing Sing but Colman Domingo is one of the most charismatic men I’ve ever seen, I put faith in him deserving his place here. I’ve also put down Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice as a chaos win. To clarify, this isn’t because of the performance. Stan does a really impressive job at not impersonating Trump but instead creating a character around the cultural idea of him. The only reason it would sew chaos is because you know for a fact that Trump would throw his toys out of the pram at it and we wouldn’t hear the end of it for months. Moving back to normality, we have star of Conclave, Ralph Fiennes. Having seen the film twice now, it can’t be understated how wonderful he is in this. He holds the thing together as its rock, yet allows that rock to crack over the film. It’s a joy. Many have Timothée Chalamet down for an upset and it’s certainly possible. He gives one of those biopic performances that the Oscars love, though with the exception that this is a good biopic performance, unlike most years (cough, Bohemian Rhapsody, cough). My only issue with this winning is that I don’t think it’s even Chalamet’s best performance this year, as he is sensational in Dune: Part Two. No, my vote, and indeed my prediction, is Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. What a powerhouse performance, a towering thing of layers upon layers that hurts all the way down. He leads an epic of a film and his shoulders don’t tremble once. Weirdly, it would be his second win for playing a Holocaust survivor, but that odd trivia aside it’s a win he would deserve. If I can though, let’s mourn the performance of Josh O’Connor for La Chimera. Though I was tempted to nominate him for Challengers, his greater work is here. He has to strike such a gentle tone that is properly unique and totally believable. Rohrwacher’s film is on its own unique wavelength and O’Connor is a pivotal part of why that works.

Best Director

Will Win: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

Should Win: Sean Baker for Anora

Should Have Been Nominated: RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys

The more I look at my prediction here, the less certain I feel. It is between Corbet and Baker, have no doubt. Audiard is a bad choice, Mangold is an odd choice (derogatory) and Fargeat is an odd choice (complimentary), but the three all remain below the big two. The Brutalist is a film that feels classic in it’s scale, unique and single minded, which is the kind of thing we credit directors for. But then also, Anora presents a chaos, tames a chaos and then brings it all together into something beautiful. Baker has been talking a lot about how modern classic directors like Mike Leigh and Ken Roach have inspired him and if you start thinking of him in that company, you think of best director. Ultimately, I think Corbet will win but I would choose Baker. Both could swap at a moment’s notice. As my rogue choice though, I would have to choose RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys. What a film of vision, of uniqueness, of simple and pure cinema. The way he has spoken of his film in interviews is the way we speak of poetry. He will be one of the greats in years to come, as will his film.

Best Picture

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Nickel Boys

Should Have Been Nominated: The Beast and Challengers

CHAOS WIN: Emilia Pérez

We arrive at the big one, which you all always skip to the end for. It’s okay, I know it, let’s just pretend I didn’t put in hours of work to the last entries. In dead last, we have Emilia Pérez. No film has fallen quite so hard in quite so long and if it won, it would be the worst Best Picture winner since Green Book, maybe even Crash. We cross our fingers it won’t happen and it seems unlikely, but it would be a moment for sure. After that, I’d discount The Substance for it’s grotesque excess and Wicked because people will think about voting for part two instead next year (not that this helped Dune: Part Two much). A Complete Unknown is quite a lovely film that charmed me far more than I expected, which could aid on a preferential ballot, but ultimately will probably just sell lots of DVDs. Though fantastic, I’m Still Here is seriously unlikely to win because it was seriously unlikely to end up nominated in this category but once again, good on it for making it. I also think Dune: Part Two is nominated for essentially a formality, despite it being phenomenal. I’m rewatching the films currently with my partner and won’t watch Part Two until after this is posted but there’s a strong chance that this second watch could convince me it’s a masterpiece. Speaking of masterpieces, The Brutalist fits into a similar category to Dune because honestly, it’s probably too good and too odd for enough people to really love it more than anything else. I think it’s fantastic but it still just misses my personal top three.

Which leaves us with the final two, the two that I think are the most likely contenders for Best Picture. Anora is the bookies favourite right now and it would be a fantastic win. I just wonder if it will be too abrasive for many. It is loud, it is about sex workers and it is emotionally sticky, I don’t know if it is the crowd pleaser everyone thinks it is. Just from anecdotal experience, Anora did not perform well at the cinema I work at, someone came out saying it was the worst film they had ever seen. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but if the older demographic of Britain are anything like the older demographic of the Academy, it is a sign of the wind changing. No, I think it will be Conclave. Young or old, male or female, pope or no pope, people love this movie. In the preferential voting system, where the winner is often second or third on people’s ballots, Conclave will do well. I believe it so strongly that I even have a bet on Conclave to win. I made the bet in October because I’m insane, but I stand strong in it. If I could make one last plea though, as I’m sure you know, I would have loved to see The Beast or Challengers in conversation here. The Beast would always have been a long shot, a grand Lynchian delusion of a film, but Challengers is such an exciting and popular film that it still feels odd that it was never in the conversation. Time will be kind to it, as I think it will be for Nickel Boys. That would be a historic win, so it can never happen. It says too much, says it too well, is just too well made to ever be considered a Best Picture winner. As we stand though, there is still plenty of chaos in the mix for this ceremony. Even though I have an early start on Monday, I will be staying up for the anarchy that may ensue and hoping sleep deprivation doesn’t cause me to hallucinate the worst.

Hello! I am here to talk about the Oscars, because they’re dumb and pointless and don’t matter, which is why they’re so exciting and fun and feel like they matter. I usually do a predictions list before the nominations come out and sometimes I’ll pair that with a final one that predicts the ultimate winners. This time though, I figured I’d skip the first part and just try to go all in on these final predictions, giving a shot at predicting every category! What a weird and pointless endeavour! Still, what better way to celebrate the Oscars than with a time consuming and pointless venture? Each category will have my prediction for what will win and we’ll slowly add onto that. For a category like Best Documentary Short, I will probably struggle to find all the nominees, but in categories I’ve seen all the entries for, expect to see both “Should Win” and “Should Have Been Nominated” along with maybe some written words! We’re gonna have a lovely little mix of some speculation and some unasked for opinions, so buckle in and just scroll to wherever is most interesting for you!

Best Documentary Short Film

Will Win: The ABCs of Book Burning

Best Live Action Short Film

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

The other films are going to struggle to compete against a name as high profile as Wes Anderson and while I’d have preferred a different short from this anthology, it would be a nice win and a funny little way for Wes Anderson to finally get an Oscar.

Best Animated Short Film

Will Win: Letter to a Pig

Best Documentary

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Should Have Been Nominated: Kokomo City

For a category in which so many great films can be made, I always despair a little at Best Documentary for choosing to reward the topic more than the film. Take last year, in which Navalny won over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, a move that clearly only happened because no one saw either film. By that same merit, 20 Days in Mariupol is a slam dunk for the win, a look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine which is a conflict that us snobbish Westerners can all agree on and not one of those “complicated” ones. I’ll be honest, I haven’t seen any of the films in this category, documentaries often take longer to make it to UK shores than other categories do, so my snobbishness could well be unfounded. 20 Days seems like some genuinely good journalism and documenting of an ongoing and very real issue, it’s just not the kind of documentary I’m usually interested in. The kind of thing I’m interested in is Kokomo City. It’s a documentary that is a series of interviews with transgender sex workers, which gives an in depth and compassionate look at an underground scene but does so with a sense of levity and a genuine artistry. If you didn’t see it, seek it out, it’s the kind of film that an award like this should point attention towards!

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: The Creator

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

Should Have Been Nominated: Oppenheimer

Even though I think The Creator is the worst film of the selection, its visuals are stupendous. On a budget that’s impressively low, the VFX crew created a world you fully believed in, even if its storytelling let it down. My choice though would be Godzilla Minus One, an even cheaper movie that is a magical thing to behold. Godzilla looks just as good as (and often better than) the American interpretations and you believe every second he’s on screen. Easily the most baffling omission though is Oppenheimer. I guess because they emphasised how many of the effects were practical, people believed it didn’t fit the category. But, a practical effect is still a visual effect! It’s a weird reverse of that thing where the original Tron was ineligible because they used computers for the effects. Bonkers! More impressive, it’s one of the few categories where Oppenheimer didn’t have a presence and yet it still feels like it was done dirty.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker for Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: Johnathan Alberts for All of Us Strangers

Controversially, editing films that are really long is really impressive! Anyone can snip away at a film to get it to 100 minutes, but it takes a true master to make a long film flow with the ease of a film half its length. Both Jennifer Lame and Thelma Schoonmaker have done some of the best editing work I’ve ever seen, in ways both really big and really small. Truthfully, either of them could win and either of them would really deserve to win, I just wanted an excuse to mention them both in conversation. They edited films made by cinematic visionaries but those visions would have been nothing without the editors. Similarly, the ghostly power of All of Us Strangers comes from its editing. We slip between faces and images of faces in ways that blur time and identity and all ultimately come together to form this powerful emotional core. Intangibility of all kinds powers the film and a huge portion of that comes in how the editing slots together these intangible little things into a big thing that is coherent despite being ephemeral. What I’m saying sounds like nonsense but it’s editing that is almost impossible to describe, such is its inherently brilliant and cinematic nature.

Best Costume Design

Will Win and Should Win: Holly Waddington for Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Stacey Battat for Priscilla

Three of the films in this category are the obligatory period drama picks, in which artists very successfully recreate looks from the past. I don’t mean to diminish their work but again, it’s not the kind of thing I get excited for. Barbie is a more interesting shout, in which everything has to look like something that a doll would wear, but Poor Things is an undeniably perfect choice here. Not only is there a period element in the Victorian setting, but there is this little bonkers thread that makes every dress, every suit, every weird pair of shoes pop. It’s a slam dunk choice. I would have enjoyed some love for Priscilla though, it is a film so precisely constructed in that way that all Sofia Coppola films are. With Priscilla’s outfits being an important part of the confinement of the film, they have to be perfect for the film to work and they truly are perfect. It could never surmount Poor Things but a nomination would have been appreciated.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Maestro

Should Win: Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Talk to Me

CHAOS WIN: Golda

So, this is a weird little category. As an award, it usually goes to one of two things; either a superhero movie or a biopic with a “transformative performance.” This year, it will be the latter, for weird and controversial reasons. Bradley Cooper is unrecognisable in Maestro, sure, but it hinges on this weird issue of a very pronounced fake nose. Much of the work is subtle, but that nose draws attention and it may just win the statue. The much worse version of this and my easy chaos pick is Golda, in which Helen Mirren wears a fake nose to play a political figure in the Israeli government. It is everything Maestro was criticised for and worse, just a terrible terrible film to talk about at a time when Israel are committing the crimes they’re committing. Fingers crossed it doesn’t become an awful footnote in Oscar history. What would deserve this is Poor Things, a film which has the perfect blend of obvious and squelchy effects (god bless Willem Dafoe’s face) and tasteful makeup work on Bella that evolves as she does. It seems like it and Oppenheimer will split the technical categories so my fingers are crossed here. A little recognition though for Talk To Me would have been a treat. Squishy monster effects never seem to get the appreciation they deserve and oh, what squishes we were gifted.

Best Cinematography

Will Win and Should Win: Hoyte van Hoytema for Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: Dan Laustsen for John Wick: Chapter Four

I don’t know how the hell El Conde got nominated, but at least that weird film with a blood sucking Margaret Thatcher gets some notoriety for the rest of time. I also don’t know why Maestro is in this category. Is it because it’s black and white? That’s pathetic. Killers of the Flower Moon is very pretty in places and Poor Things uses great cinematography to show off sensational production design (more on that soon) but this is absolutely an award that Oppenheimer has to take. Whenever I think of Hoyte can Hoytema, I think about him lugging around these huge IMAX cameras on these shoulders, a physical endeavour that he overcomes for the sake of creating some of the most beautiful images ever seen. And yeah, it’s easy to make space stuff look pretty, but making guys in rooms talking look engaging? That is an art and one that he will certainly be rewarded for. It wouldn’t beat Oppenheimer because there is clearly no better cinematography this year, but a nomination for John Wick: Chapter Four would have been a treat. These set pieces are stunning and succeed in looking beautiful while still keeping the action visible and coherent. Again, that sounds simple but I cannot imagine the logistics or planning that go into one of these sequences, let alone ten of them in a single film. Stunning stuff that still isn’t as exciting as blokes in rooms talking bombs.

Best Production Design

Will Win: Barbie

Should Win: Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Asteroid City

Very good stuff going on in the category this year. Barbie is naturally the headline, which I think is helped by that whole “the world ran out of pink paint” thing that went on for a while. It is obviously brilliantly constructed, but I think it struggles to compete with Poor Things. A lot of its behind the scenes stills have shown a lot of green screens, but they’ve also shown unspeakably lavish sets, built with intricacy and care. Barbie would deserve the award but the world of Poor Things is such an alien world (especially compared to the world of dolls) that you have to fully believe in the world to let anything get in. Speaking of aliens though, show a little love for Asteroid City! I know it’s a cliché to say that Wes Anderson films are beautiful but God, this is a stunner. Plus, it’s entirely about construction and storytelling, so thematically it has to be on point! Anyway, a robbed film, we all treated it too harshly.

Best Sound

Will Win and Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Have Been Nominated: John Wick: Chapter Four

At one point, Oppenheimer had a shot with this award but the tide has turned. The sound is immaculate and again, it has to work for the film to work, but The Zone of Interest is an all timer. The sound of the film has to tell a separate story to the visual component of the film, which is so much more complicated than it sounds. Words are not strong enough to talk about what has been achieved so all I can recommend is that you check it out for yourself and feel absolutely terrible for a week! To go lighter though, I would have loved some appreciation for John Wick: Chapter Four. Action films are great because of how satisfying and cool the sounds of people being punched or shot or kicked in the face are and few films feature as much punching or shooting or kicking as John Wick. You can listen to the film and truly believe that you heard a man roll down two flights of stairs and that is the kind of movie magic I believe we should celebrate.

Best Original Song

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

Should Have Been Nominated: “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

CHAOS WIN: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

The nominees in this category mean that a film about the creation of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos is now an Oscar nominee. Wild. If it wins, anarchy. In reality though, it’s a Barbie competition. The Academy love Billie Eilish so they’re very likely to reward her again for her (admittedly great) song that soundtracks the big emotional moment at the end of the film as well as the credits. While the film ends, it’s the song that sticks with you. However, I and many others love the deeply silly “I’m Just Ken”, a song which channels the melodramatic torment at the heart of the silliest man of the year. Somehow it still makes me giggle after all this overexposure, which is a marvel in and of itself. Call me a broken record, but I think Asteroid City should have been nominated. The “Dear Alien” song is a catchy and silly ditty which, unlike many nominations that often appear in this category, actually exists in the world of the film. I would always so much rather have that than just a song to play over the credits.

Best Original Score

Will Win and Should Win: Ludwig Göransson for Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: kwes. for Rye Lane

Again, this is one of those categories where there are a few nice options, where Poor Things could be a really cool winner… But nothing can stand in the way of Oppenheimer. I obviously love Ludwig Göransson for his work on Community and the fact that he has gone from this little sitcom that was always on the edge of cancellation to a colossal blockbuster without missing a beat remains genuinely impressive. It’s also a propulsive score that powers the audience through what could so easily be a challenging film and yet isn’t. I can’t imagine Oppenheimer without it. Another score that is a part of the films personality is the one for Rye Lane by kwes. Rye Lane is a film that is fun, such a breeze and very (without sounding completely cringe) cool, which the score amplifies. It is the perfect music for walking around and chatting and again, Rye Lane doesn’t exist in as perfect a form it does without that score.

Best International Feature Film

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Have Been Nominated: The Taste of Things

I feel bad because I haven’t really done my dues with this category. It’s always tricky to catch the international films before the ceremony and so to be frank, I haven’t. To counteract that, I won’t say what I would pick, because I’ve only seen one of the films. That film though, The Zone of Interest, seems set to take the category. It is, after all, the only film in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture, its odds not hurt by the fact that it is also excellent. It will also be the first time that the UK picks up the prize in this category, enjoy that trivia nerds. I would have loved to see a nomination for The Taste of Things though. For those who don’t know, countries can only nominate one film to represent themselves and France chose Taste over Anatomy of a Fall, which also got nominated for Best Picture. This has resulted in a huge and slightly messy war in which Taste has been an unfortunate casualty, doubly unfortunate because it’s an incredible film! It’s this beautiful and meditative study on food and love and the space where those two blend into a tasty sauce, which I have been raving about since October. Please, I urge you to give it a chance, as long as you don’t do it on an empty stomach. It is such an underappreciated treat that is at risk of being lost to the footnotes of film history.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win and Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This will be a quick one because I also haven’t seen much of the category, but that’s not going to slow me down too much because the two I have seen are the two that make up the competition here. It is coming down to either The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Boy has a chance because Ghibli have never won this award before and with what is allegedly Miyazaki’s last film for the company, this would be the perfect time to reward him and Ghibli. However, the film is very abstract and requires you to work for it and I don’t know if all the people voting will appreciate that. Spider-Verse is the much easier film and a film which, admittedly, I prefered. It has its frustrating cliffhanger ending and the animators weren’t well treated, but God, what a picture. If you want to celebrate how far we can push animation, this is the most interesting case Hollywood has made for the medium since… Well, the last Spider-Verse film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for Barbie

Should Win: Tony McNamara for Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

After all the hubub about Gerwig not getting a Best Director nomination for Barbie, expect her to take Adapted Screenplay. I’m saying this like it’s a foregone conclusion but actually, this is a pretty competitive category, full of worthy winners. Poor Things, American Fiction, Oppenheimer and The Zone of Interest would all deserve the win, with Poor Things just barely edging out the competition for me for the simple reason that I find the dialogue very funny. But man, would it have been so hard to nominate Killers of the Flower Moon? This is such a large and complicated story which is somehow wrangled into a film that is not just watchable but compellingly so. I think it is witchcraft on all fronts and should be rewarded for that magic.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Celine Song for Past Lives

Should Win: Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik for May December

Should Have Been Nominated: Ari Aster for Beau is Afraid

Past Lives only got two nominations but has this warm feeling behind it, where the people who love it just absolutely adore it. I wasn’t quite as infatuated but also I had the feeling that this was a film I could return to and constantly pick up more from. Many are rooting for either Anatomy of a Fall or The Holdovers, but I just have this gut feeling that Past Lives could take it. What will not win though is May December, a film that is nominated by basically a miracle. It is such a tricky story and very emotionally complicated and I cannot even fathom how you go about making a film about this topic that works. And while it never stood a chance, Beau is Afraid being nominated would have been incredible. Ari Aster poured his weird little heart out onto the page and created a film that is, without question, an Ari Aster film. It did not work for most people but it really worked for me and to be honest, I think how much it didn’t work for a people is a sign that this film had real impact. It’s a bonkers mess but weirdly works. Sue me, I would put it here.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win and Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers

Should Have Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.

Of all the categories this year, this is the one which is least likely for an upset. For the entire awards season, Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been clearing up and you know what? Totally deserved. Her role is amazing, she elevates the film and all her speeches have been awesome. I look forward to her winning this, it won’t be a shock but it’ll be a lovely moment. Apologies to the other nominees, no one else is coming close. Someone who could have come close though would have been Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. I believe this film is really going to stand the test of time and man, if America Ferrara is getting nominated almost solely on the back of that speech in the middle of Barbie, McAdams has a version of the speech which is so much smarter and more heartbreaking and has these beautiful layers going on that people of all ages and genders will gravitate to. She’s ace, should have snuck in here and then also lost to Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Charles Melton for May December

I find this a slightly weird category to write about because for me, I just can’t understand how Charles Melton is not only not the frontrunner for this award but isn’t even nominated. Not only is his performance better than any of the other ones in this category but it is also my favourite performance of the year full stop. You watch him on screen with this sick feeling in your stomach and see a boy trapped in a man’s body, failing to get out or even be fully seen. If you haven’t seen May December, watch it just for Melton’s performance, it is that good. Anyway, everything after that is quite underwhelming. By now, Robert Downey Jr. has the award in the bag, but some silly little guys could stand to cause an upset. Ryan Gosling was great as Ken and Mark Ruffalo plays a version of that character, turned up to a brilliantly nauseating level. Ruffalo would be my pick, but Gosling is more likely to come in with the upset if for some reason Downey Jr. doesn’t take the trophy.

Best Actress

Will Win and Should Win: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: Vivian Oparah for Rye Lane

Best Actress is maybe the most competitive of the big five categories this year, coming down to two absolutely brilliant performers giving some of the best performances we’ve seen this decade. This two horse race isn’t to diminish the other actresses in competition, the other three are all great performers who did pretty great work across their careers, but imagine trying to beat Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone. The two have been handing the baton between each other since November and about a month ago, Stone seemed like the one to beat. Her role in Poor Things is a very strange one, but it’s a strangeness she’s allowed to lean into and make really funny. A role this comedic is rarely celebrated this much and that’s awesome! But, Gladstone has been my choice since the moment I saw Killers of the Flower Moon. It’s a more typically dramatic role, but one that she nails. Her eyes contain emotions that her face isn’t allowed to process and her body carries generations of weight that can never be off loaded. I am bad at talking about why acting works, I just think she’s amazing and this would be an amazing win for the Native American community, topped with what would be a very emotional speech from Gladstone. Indulge me though (you know, for a change), Vivian Oparah should have been nominated for Rye Lane. She got a surprise nom at the BAFTAs, but clearly no Americans saw the most gleefully romantic movie of this year or most other years. Both our leads deserve props for what they do, but Oparah gets the more dramatic arc and is hiding her emotions for much of the time, letting them all build into a really joyous finale. She’s ace, keep an eye out for her in the future!

Best Actor

Will Win and Should Win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers

CHAOS WIN: Bradley Cooper for Maestro

Can we all agree that it would be hysterical if Bradley Cooper wins this? It feels like Cooper basically handpicked the role for himself to win an Oscar and everyone could smell it and has refused to give him a single award this year. But if he does sneak in? I will piss myself with laughter, it would make the Oscars such a farce. Anyway, this was another two horse race for a while, but Paul Giamatti has since lost steam with his performance in The Holdovers. He’s lovely and warm, but he cannot compete with Cillian Murphy. IMAX as a camera format is almost exclusively used for big landscapes and spectacular action, not close ups, but in Christopher Nolan’s hands he make’s Murphy’s face the biggest face you have ever seen. In that face though, magnitudes. You read the world in his face, from ambition to terror to anguish. He’s fab and those terrible people with Peaky Blinders tattoos will enjoy an extra large can of lager to celebrate his win. Someone I thought genuinely could have had a chance getting nominated was Andrews Scott for All of Us Strangers. He gives one of those wonderful performances that blossoms as the film continues, where every new scene reveals something about his emotional state that you hadn’t considered before. By the time the film wraps up, you realise quite how much was on Scott’s shoulders (which is even after you realise he only has three co-stars) and also he’s great because he made me cry. A big omission here, but one that I think would still lose to Cillian Murphy.

Best Director

Will Win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Should Win: Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: Raine Allen-Miller for Rye Lane

After 25 years as a filmmaker with a track record that makes his contemporaries blush, Christopher Nolan seems primed to finally take home his first Best Director Oscar. For Oppenheimer, it’s fully worth it, a film which required an untold amount of wrangling to make coherent, let alone compelling. In what is an incredibly strong category (one in which I genuinely don’t think you could or should squeeze anyone out to make room for someone like Greta Gerwig), Nolan is the clear favourite for once. I would love to see Scorsese take it though. He has still only won this award once after ten nominations and Killers of the Flower Moon feels like the apex of a career already full of highlights. I feel similarly about it as I do Twin Peaks: The Return, in that I hope it isn’t the last thing we get from a legendary director, but it would be a phenomenal final note to end on. Say it with me though, justice for Rye Lane! I am a broken record and refuse to be fixed! Raine Allen-Miller has created a film that appears deceptively simple, but is such a gentle balancing act to perfect that she deserves immense credit. In the same way that Richard Linklater rarely gets the credit he’s due for choreographing the Before trilogy, Allen-Miller makes it look easy. Crucially, she also makes it feel new, a film that is indebted to the Before trilogy but not some mere imitator. It feels like in every scene, she picked the most interesting way to visually tell the story and never once made the wrong choice. I cannot wait for what she does next, but I also am forever grateful to her for giving us Rye Lane.

Best Picture

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: The Taste of Things and Rye Lane

CHAOS WIN: Maestro

Alright, finally here. You have scrolled all the way down to read this one, past hours of work I spent writing, just to get my thoughts on Best Picture and to that I say: yeah, fair enough, let’s not waste anymore time then, eh? Maestro is by far the worst film on this list and while I would struggle to actively call it bad, it is a film that has no vision, no perspective and no real reason to exist outside of winning an Oscar. It would be an unbelievably funny win, a historic “how did that happen” moment and part of me almost wants it for the surprise. With that discounted though, we’re left with nine really solid nominees. American Fiction is a funny drama that’s about prejudice but also how that competes with how to actually live a life and then also a bunch of great jokes about being a writer. Anatomy of a Fall is an incredibly smart courtroom drama that’s less about whodunnit and more about what goes into what we believe about whodunnit. Barbie is a blockbuster that had no right being as great as it was, sneaking subversiveness into an impressive corporate product. The Holdovers is one of those “movies they don’t make anymore” movies that is warm and lovely while never sugarcoating the dark bits, more fit to be a holiday classic than it is a major contender in this category. Past Lives is a gorgeous and complex drama about two people and their feelings, the kind of thing that is set to resonate deeply with quite a few but also bounce off just as many people. Poor Things is far too weird and far too excellent to be a contender at this ceremony and somehow is. What a miracle it is, though your parents would do well to watch it when you’re not around. Finally, The Zone of Interest is a film that we are destined to talk for decades and is in real conversation with what the future of cinema could look like, of course it won’t win because it is too good for that.

Which leaves us with two. As I’ve been saying throughout this post and in my best of the year list, Killers of the Flower Moon is a masterpiece. It is a sprawling western epic about a true American evil, in which traces of joy are slowly infected by a darkness that has left neither me, nor America. In the process of doing so, it is also a display of some of our great film artists working at the top of their game, across editing, cinematography and acting to name but three. In every single way, it is the greatest film of the year and my favourite. Unfortunately, it seems to be about 26 minutes too long for most people, so to Oppenheimer it goes. To be fair to it, it really does feel like the movie of 2023. Not only did it gross an obscene amount of money at the box office, but it was beloved by critics across the globe, got audiences back into cinemas and showed the importance of large format cinema projection. It’s quite wonderful and deserves the win, which is good because I can’t see anything beating it to the finish line. Get this prediction in to all your friends to sound smart and then hey, boot up your lovely pristine TV and rewatch it, to absolutely blow the tits off your neighbours once the bomb drops and decimates your speakers. That’s the true magic of cinema.